Algorithmic Edge on Prediction Markets
We trade crypto prediction markets on your behalf using institutional-grade algorithms. Deposit USDC, our bots handle the rest — Brownian Bridge models, GARCH volatility, real-time order flow, working 24/7 so you don't have to.
Trade Across 7 Crypto Assets
Our algorithms operate on every crypto prediction market available on Polymarket — from 5-minute sprints to daily targets.
All markets powered by Polymarket CLOB with Chainlink price feeds for resolution.
From Data to Alpha
Three stages of algorithmic intelligence, running continuously across every active Polymarket BTC window.
Data Collection
Our bots ingest real-time BTC prices via Binance WebSocket, Polymarket order book depth, and on-chain signals — processing thousands of data points per minute.
Mathematical Models
An ensemble of Brownian Bridge probability models, GARCH(1,1) volatility forecasting, momentum factors, and order flow analysis computes fair value with statistical confidence.
Automated Execution
When edge exceeds thresholds, Kelly Criterion sizes the position. Risk manager enforces daily/weekly limits, circuit breakers, and drawdown protection. Execution is sub-second via Polymarket CLOB API.
Our Trading Wallets — Verified On-Chain
Track our bots' performance live on Polymarket. Every trade is transparent, on-chain, and verifiable.
Built on Mathematics, Not Hype
Four specialized models work together as an ensemble, each contributing a unique signal weighted by historical accuracy.
Brownian Bridge Probability Model
Calculates the exact probability that BTC will cross a strike price within a given time window, accounting for current price, volatility regime, and time decay.
P(S_T > K) = Φ((ln(S/K) + μT) / (σ√T))Modified Black-Scholes framework adapted for binary prediction market payoffs with real-time price feeds.
GARCH(1,1) Volatility Engine
Dynamic volatility forecasting with volatility clustering detection. Adapts to market regimes — low volatility, high volatility, and transition states in real-time.
σ²_t = ω + α·ε²_{t-1} + β·σ²_{t-1}Regime detection (low_vol / high_vol / normal) with EWMA fallback when data is insufficient for GARCH fitting.
Order Flow Intelligence
Reads the Polymarket CLOB order book to detect bid/ask imbalance, large order placement, and smart money flow — factored into every signal.
OFI = Σ(bid_size) / Σ(bid_size + ask_size)Top-5 level orderbook analysis refreshed every 15 seconds, weighted by distance from mid-price.
Kelly Criterion Position Sizing
Mathematically optimal bet sizing based on edge magnitude and confidence. Combined with fractional Kelly (1/4) for conservative risk management.
f* = (p·b − q) / b → size = ¼·f*·bankrollQuarter-Kelly prevents ruin while maintaining positive expected growth. Edge must exceed fees + min threshold.
FV = 0.50·BB + 0.20·GARCH + 0.15·Momentum + 0.15·OrderFlowWeights adapt automatically based on each model's rolling prediction accuracy. The ensemble consistently outperforms any individual model.
Institutional-Grade Risk Management
Multiple layers of protection ensure your capital is safeguarded at every level — from individual positions to portfolio-wide circuit breakers.
Automatic halt when daily losses reach 5% of bankroll
Weekly cap prevents compounding drawdowns
Trading stops automatically at 20% max drawdown
Maximum 10% of bankroll per single market
Instant shutdown via dashboard or Telegram command
Real-time notifications for every open, close, and risk event
One Plan. Full Access.
Deposit USDC. We trade on our managed accounts using battle-tested algorithms. You keep the profits. No hidden fees, no tiers.
Cancel anytime. No long-term contracts.
Or contact us for custom enterprise solutions
Frequently Asked Questions
The bot identifies mispricings on Polymarket's BTC binary markets. When the market price diverges from our mathematically computed fair value (using Brownian Bridge + GARCH + Order Flow), the bot enters positions on the underpriced side. Binary markets resolve at $1 or $0, so correct predictions yield significant returns. Our straddle strategy also captures extreme price movements by placing low-cost limit orders on both sides.